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Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 21, 2023. The past several months have seen a changing dynamic between financial markets and the Fed over the pace and timing of expected interest rate cuts this year. Markets have had to adjust their collective view from a highly accommodative central bank to one that's more cautious and deliberate. Central to the question of how the Fed acts from here on out is its view on inflation and how Powell expresses that. Powell will have to synthesize the recent trends carefully as he speaks first to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, then the Senate Banking Committee the day after.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Nathan Howard, Powell, Quincy Krosby, He's, it's, Joseph LaVorgna, Steven Ricchiuto, Sharp Organizations: Federal, Financial, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, Capitol Hill, Fed, LPL, CME Group, Banking Committee, Nikko Securities, Big Tech, Mizuho Securities, Market Locations: Washington ,
The Federal Reserve's rate-cut signal in December triggered a furious rally to record highs, unleashing animal spirits that are fueling similar speculative activities from the depths of the pandemic. "The animal spirits are reviving," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global Research, said in a phone interview. "Animal spirits, they don't necessarily start with the biggest animals in the jungle," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone. To be sure, others believe the market rally has been justified by the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and the contribution it's likely to make to future corporate profits. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the U.S. stock market is not in a speculative bubble based on his criteria.
Persons: Bitcoin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Cryptocurrency, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Ray Dalio Organizations: BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, GameStop, Palo Alto Networks, Research, LPL Locations: Nigeria, Argentina, Snowflake, YOLO, . U.S, U.S
S&P 500 futures edged up in overnight trading Wednesday, boosted by a jump in Nvidia shares as the chip giant posted record revenue and issued upbeat guidance. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1%. Nvidia shares popped more than 8% in after-hours trading after the chip company said total revenue rose a whopping 265% from a year ago, driven by its booming artificial intelligence business. AI enthusiasm has powered the jaw-dropping rally in Nvidia, along with other Big Tech names, over the past year. "Investors should know that the path of disinflation will likely be choppy, creating volatility in the rates market," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
Persons: David Russell, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bears, Federal, LPL, Moderna, Builders, Live, Booking Holdings, Intuit Locations: U.S
For example, the tech sector’s valuations are generally lower than they were then, though still elevated. One is that the fundamentals of the tech sector are detached from its price action. While the sector’s earnings have performed better than the rest of the market on average, earnings expectations have been rising faster than actual subsequent earnings performance. Many parallels between the dot-com bubble and today’s market have been called to light in recent weeks. Only time will tell if tech stocks are in a bubble that's due to burst.
Persons: Albert Edwards, , ” Edwards, Edwards, Michael Hartnett, Jeffrey Schulze, Adam Karr, , Quincy Krosby, Hartnett Organizations: Societe Generale, Nasdaq, Business, Generale, Bank of America, Orbis Investment Management, Artificial Intelligence, LPL Financial Locations: Japan
Retail Sales Dive in January as Consumers Pull Back
  + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Tim Smart | Feb. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
Retail sales fell by 0.8% last month, far worse than expected, as consumers pulled back from their holiday spending and amid rising inflation and higher credit costs, the Census Bureau reported on Thursday. While overall retail trade sales declined, nonstore retailers were up 6.4 percent from last year. And consumers continued to spend on eating out, with food services and drinking places up 6.3% from a year ago. In January, retail sales rose by 2.34% from a year ago, according to the NRF/CNBC Retail Monitor powered by credit card tracking firm Affinity Solutions, but sales were down by 0.16% from December’s strong performance. “Notably, consumers are feeling strained by higher prices at the grocery store and beyond,” Patel said.
Persons: Jeffrey Roach, , Jonathan Silver, Piyush Patel, , ” Patel, Organizations: Census, Federal, LPL, CNBC Retail Monitor, Affinity Solutions, Affinity, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on February 14, 2024 in New York City. Stock futures are were little changed on Thursday night as investors attempt to carry forward the broader market's strong momentum. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 27 points, or 0.07%. S&P futures inched up 0.03%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 37 points, or 0.2%. "Market expectations and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy projections have become closer aligned, alleviating a source of market volatility.
Persons: Dow, Adam Turnquist Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Materials, LPL, Federal Reserve Locations: New York City, U.S
That sudden volatility highlights something that we often write about in Before the Bell: the major mismatch between policymaker and investor expectations for interest rate cuts this year. Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have repeatedly said they envision at most three rate cuts in 2024. Wall Street, meanwhile, has ignored those warnings and has opted to practice unflinching optimism instead. It’s not the first time they’ve had to learn an important lesson: Don’t fight the Fed. Bad for the markets, good for the Fed: Markets clearly don’t often take kindly to higher-for-longer interest rates, which can negatively impact earnings and stock prices.
Persons: New York CNN —, Jerome Powell, Dow, It’s, they’ve, Don’t, , , Quincy Krosby, Arnim Holzer, José Torres, Chris Zaccarelli, doesn’t, ” Carl Icahn, Carl Icahn, Icahn, Chris Isidore, JetBlue’s, Samantha Delouya, Lyft, Erin Brewer Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Treasury, LPL, Fed, Interactive Brokers, CPI, Independent, Alliance, JetBlue, Spirit Airlines, Analysts Locations: New York, December’s, ,
Read previewThe S&P 500 surpassed 5,000 for the first time on Friday, riding a wave of investor optimism about the health of the US economy. It's represented by the red line in the chart below, while the S&P 500 is shown in blue. Here's a chart from a regression analysis by Bank of America showing the impact that valuations have on long-term stock market returns. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 23% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, It's, Tom Lee, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Hussman, Bank of America
The dollar is back. It’s not all good news
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —The greenback is strengthening again after a bumpy 2023, as Wall Street accepts that interest rate cuts are coming later than previously expected. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against the British pound, euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, is up 2.8% for the year as of Friday morning. “All of a sudden the interest rate differential kicks in — if that is slower than the Fed or faster,” said Krosby. Higher interest rates tend to garner more international capital to flow into a country, raising demand for the currency and thus its value. Still, Todd Jones, chief investment officer at Gratus Capital, says he expects the dollar to trend lower eventually as the Fed gets closer to cutting rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Quincy Krosby, , Neel Kashkari, Todd Jones, Jones, Anna Cooban, Richard Meade, Janet Yellen, Alicia Wallace, Yellen, ” Yellen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Swiss, Canadian, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, LPL, Treasury, Minneapolis, Gratus, Fed, Hamas, Lloyds, CNN, Banking Committee Locations: New York, Swedish, Iran, Suez, Asia, Europe
Off the Charts: Nikkei hits 34-year high
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOff the Charts: Nikkei hits 34-year highAdam Turnquist, LPL Financial, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the Nikkei hitting a 34-year high on Yen weakness and where it goes from here.
Persons: Adam Turnquist Organizations: Nikkei, LPL
As China's property market and deflation woes continue to rattle investors, India's growth outlook appears all the more impressive. Last year's annual report attributed strong revenue growth partially to expansion in the Middle East, India, and Asia, Krishna wrote. "More than revenue, India is an important area for sourcing talent" as well, Krishna wrote. Growth potential For investors looking to gain exposure to the domestic stock market, Indian equities themselves aren't especially cheap though. "You're paying for the growth potential in India, certainly.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Ahya, Bernstein, , Narendra Modi, Bill Fitzpatrick, Fitzpatrick, Quincy Krosby, Venu Krishna, Aecom, Krishna, Tim Long, Long, Simon Coles, Krosby, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gundlach, CNBC's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Investment, Logan Capital Management, Modi, Infrastructure Pipeline, Aecom, Barclays, Cisco Systems, Juniper Networks, India —, Semiconductor, Micron Technology, Qualcomm, Logan Capital Locations: India, China, Asia, Philadelphia, South Carolina . U.S, Dallas, East, Asia Pacific, Japan, Coles , U.S, U.S, IShares
Happy Days Are Here Again, Say American Consumers
  + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( Tim Smart | Feb. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
Consumers are happy, the stock market is near record highs, inflation is moderating and the labor market is defying all forecasts. Apparently, very little as the latest reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan confirmed on Friday. The final consumer sentiment survey for January posted a 13% increase to 79, almost a 10-point surge from December’s 69.7 reading, echoing earlier estimates. “This morning’s strong jobs report diminished the chances of the Fed cutting in March,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. This means businesses are in a good position despite the macro headwinds and uncertainty about growth expectations.”
Persons: , , Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, , David Royal, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, LPL
New York (CNN) — US stocks rallied powerfully last week after a topsy-turvy start to the month. History indicates that if the market can cling to those gains, that could bode well for the rest of the year. But last week, all three major indexes turned positive for the year as tech stocks led the broader market higher. The January barometer, introduced in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, states that however stocks perform during January, their year-end performance will follow suit. That is good news for the 85 million homeowning households that enjoyed further gains in housing wealth, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR.
Persons: turvy, bode, Bell, Anna Rathbun, we’re, it’s, we’ve, Bryan Mena, ” Joanne Hsu, Anna Bahney, Lawrence Yun, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CBIZ Investment Advisory Services, The University of Michigan’s, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York
Permits were 1.9% more than the upwardly revised 1.47 million November number and at an annual level of 1.5 million. Housing starts fell 4.3% from the November annual rate of 1.53 million, a reading that was revised downward from the robust 1.56 million originally estimated. Both permits and starts were higher than a year ago, by 6.1% and 7.6%, respectively. The Best Cartoons on the Economy View All 178 Images“Falling mortgage rates should jump-start the demand for housing in the coming months,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. On Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders said its January survey found builder confidence surged as mortgage rates for the benchmark 30-year fixed rate loan dipped to 6.75%.
Persons: , Jeffrey Roach, Alicia Huey, Kelly Mangold Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban, Housing, LPL, National Association of Home Builders, ” Builders, Real Estate Consulting Locations: Birmingham , Alabama, U.S
The start of earnings season had some good news, and some bad news, as I mentioned Tuesday . Without those six stocks, the rest of the S & P is expected to see earnings fall 6%. Earnings for the S & P 500 are expected to grow 11% in 2024, a tall order, Buchbinder says, given he estimates the U.S. economy will grow only 1% this year. "The slow-growth economy we expect will not be conducive to big earnings gains," he says, which is why his estimates of $235 for the S & P 500 earnings in 2024 are well below the consensus of $243. Morgan Stanley said, "As we enter 2024, we are positioned to capitalize on the opportunity set.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Tesla, Buchbinder, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bank of America, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, LPL
Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, on Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading following a losing session to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline, along with S&P 500 futures . Interactive Brokers lost nearly 3% in extended trading after posting fourth quarter adjusted earnings that fell short of expectations. The Federal Reserve's beige book and business inventories for November are also slated for Wednesday, along with remarks from New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams.
Persons: Stocks, Christopher Waller, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Dow Jones, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Interactive, Federal Reserve, Dow, Bank of America, LPL, U.S . Bancorp, New York Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, New
Wholesale inflation fell by 0.1% in December, capping a year in which the rate of price increases dropped sharply, according to a report from the Labor Department released on Friday. The producer price index for all of 2023 came in at 1% compared to 6.4% in 2022. No indication of inflation at the wholesale level,” Kathy Jones, chief fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, posted on social media. A lot will depend on how the economy performs this year after putting in a strong performance in 2023. Wages are increasing and now running higher than the level of inflation, giving support to consumer spending.
Persons: ” Kathy Jones, , Jeffrey Roach, ” “, Jared Cohen, Goldman Sachs, Ian Bremmer, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, Dimon, ” Dimon Organizations: Labor Department, PPI, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Federal, LPL Financial, BCA Research, Fed, U.S, Global Affairs, Goldman, Eurasia Group, GZERO Media, JPMorgan Locations: Red, Iranian, Asia, U.S, Ukraine
The headline U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% last month, for an annual gain of 3.4%, against expectations of 0.2% and 3.2%, respectively. Traders are pricing in aggressive expectations for rate cuts this year, with the Fed seen as beginning to cut rates in March. But "today's CPI report suggests that the Fed's initial rate cut may be later than the market is hoping for," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "The question everyone is struggling with is what kind of inflation regime we are in - are we still in a 2010s era of low growth, low inflation and we're still just working through the end of the pandemic adjustment and then we're back into that?" The dollar index was last down 0.05% on the day at 102.29.
Persons: Bitcoin, Adam Button, Quincy Krosby, Button, it's, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumer, Index, Fed, ForexLive, Traders, Financial, Cleveland Fed, Richmond Fed, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Wednesday Locations: Toronto, Charlotte , North Carolina, U.S
Job Openings Fall Sharply, Suggesting Weaker Labor Market
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Tim Smart | Dec. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +3 min
The number of job openings fell sharply in October, to 8.7 million from a downwardly revised 9.35 million a month earlier, according to the Labor Department. The number released Tuesday was lower than economists had forecast and suggests that the labor market is slowing as the year comes to an end. “Job openings dropped to 8,733,000 in October, the lowest level since March 2021. Despite some volatile jumps/drops month-to-month, job openings have been on a downward trend since early 2022,” Daniel Zhao, lead economist and senior manager on Glassdoor’s economic research team, posted on social media. The Federal Reserve will be looking at the latest readings on the labor market as they come one week before officials meet to consider monetary policy.
Persons: ” Daniel Zhao, Jeffrey Roach, Joanie Bily, ” Bily, , Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department, LPL, American Staffing Association, ” Nomura Securities, Hollywood, Government, Federal, Fed
[1/2] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 1, 2023. The Pentagon said it was aware of reports regarding attacks on an American warship and commercial vessels in the Red Sea on Sunday, while Yemen's Houthi group claimed drone and missile attacks on two Israeli vessels in the area. Such worries flared after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack into southern Israel but subsided in recent weeks. Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said a widening conflict could push some investors to take profits on the recent rally in stocks. Signs of an intensifying Middle East conflict could also boost oil prices, which have slumped in recent weeks.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Yemen's, Quincy Krosby, , , Phil Orlando, Federated Hermes, Santa Claus, Orlando, I'm, Krystal Hu, Ira Iosebashvili, Chizu Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Hamas, Pentagon, Reuters, LPL, U.S ., Federated, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, American, Israel, United States, Iraq, Iran, Santa
The key catalyst for stocks will likely continue to be the expected trajectory of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. In September, historically the weakest month for stocks, the S&P 500 fell nearly 5%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 9% gain in November, historically a strong month for the index. Overall, December has been the second-best month for the S&P 500, with the index up an average of 1.54% for the month since 1945, according to CFRA. Many other names have languished: The equal-weighted S&P 500, whose performance is not skewed by big tech and growth stocks, is up around 6% in 2023.
Persons: Mike Segar, Santa Claus, Stocks, We've, Sam Stovall, Claus, Kraft Heinz, BofA, Sameer Samana, Dow, Michael Hartnett, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Research, Investors, LPL, BofA Global Research, PayPal Holdings, CVS Health, Kraft, Wells, Investment Institute, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Coinbase Global, Innovation, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Santa, New York
The growth pace, which was the quickest in nearly two years, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth, instead of the 1.32 percentage points estimated last month. Higher wages contributed to the economy growing at a 1.5% rate last quarter, the fastest in a year, when measured from the income side. That suggested trade could be a drag on GDP growth this quarter after being a neutral factor in the April-June period.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Conrad DeQuadros, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Analysis, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Brean, BEA, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Charlotte , North Carolina
The quickest growth pace in nearly two years reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday, however, likely exaggerated the health of the economy last quarter. Economists polled by Reuters had expected GDP growth would be revised up to a 5.0% rate. The upward revision to growth last quarter reflected upgrades to business investment on structures, mostly warehouses and healthcare facilities. Inventory investment added 1.40 percentage points to GDP growth. Profits rose at a 0.8% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Christopher Rupkey, There's, Gregory Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department's, Reuters, Federal, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL Financial, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, New York, EY, Charlotte , North Carolina
Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman Charlie Munger dies at 99
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +12 min
Nov 28 (Reuters) - Charlie Munger, the longtime vice chairman and second-in-command to Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N), died on Tuesday morning at a California hospital. For stock-pickers like us to lose Charlie Munger, would be like if you’re a basketball fan and you lose Bill Russell. "I wouldn't think Berkshire will look much different, apart from Buffett no longer being able to share ideas with Munger. CATHERINE SEIFERT, VICE-PRESIDENT, CFRA RESEARCH, NEW YORK“Berkshire Hathaway shareholders are not going to be directly or negatively impacted from the passing of Charlie Munger. Therewass already a transition plan in place and there's a transition plan in place when Warren Buffett passes away.
Persons: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett, Charlie, WHITNEY TILSON, BRIAN MOYNIHAN, Charlie Mungerwass, ” BURNS MCKINNEY, Bill Russell, , Berkshire Hathaway, ” PHIL ORLANDO, FEDERATED HERMES, BILL, Buffett, Munger, PHILLIP, , STEVE SOSNICK, , ” WIN MURRAY, DIAMOND, MARY JO, BILL SMEAD, Warren, ” “ Buffett, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, ” PAUL LOUNTZIS, Greg Abel, I've, you'll, STEPHEN DODSON, hewass, ” PAUL NOLTE, FOR MURPHY, Warren Buffet, they've, QUINCY KROSBY, RICK MECKLER, CHERRY, NEW VERNON, Hewass, obviouslywass, DOUG KASS, ” THOMAS RUSSO, GARDNER RUSSO, QUINN, CATHERINE SEIFERT, he's, ” ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, THOMAS HAYES Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, COOK, APPLE, WHO, KASE, OF, FEDERATED, Berkshire, ” WIN, THE BRETTON, SAN, SYLVEST, NEW, Buffett, GREAT, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: California, Munger, Berkshire, American, DALLAS , TEXAS, GLENVIEW, CALIFORNIA, CONNECTICUT, DIAMOND HILL, COLUMBUS , OHIO, PHOENIX, ” “ Berkshire, , PENNSYLVANIA, ELMHURST, IL, CHARLOTTE, NC, CHERRY LANE, NEW JERSEY, LANCASTER , PENNSYLVANIA, Munger . Berkshire, TROY , MICHIGAN, GREAT HILL
Consumers grew somewhat more optimistic about the future of the economy in November as expectations about inflation improved, but their sense of the current state of affairs worsened a bit. Still, two-thirds of consumers surveyed still expect a recession to be “somewhat” or “very likely” within the next 12 months. However, that is well above current inflation of 3.2% and forecasts from the Federal Reserve and mainstream economists. In the peak hour from 10 p.m. to 11 p.m. EST, consumers spent $15.7 million a minute, according to online analytics firm Adobe. One thing that might make some consumers happy is that home prices continued to increase in September.
Persons: , Dana Peterson, ” Peterson, Jeffrey Roach, Craig J, Lazzara, Lisa Sturtevant Organizations: Conference, Federal Reserve, LPL, , Adobe, MLS Locations: Detroit, San Diego
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